Following Netflix’s recent announcements that it had added over 25 million subscribers amid the pandemic (15.77 million subscribers in Q1 and over 10 million in Q2), which is almost the same as the entire number added throughout 2019 — 28 million — we decided to revisit our study on Netflix subscriber numbers and revenue totals.
In the past, we have taken Netflix’s totals for America and the rest of the world to try and determine the company’s approximate revenues in various countries around the world. But Netflix now reveals its revenue and subscription figures in four different regions — the United States and Canada; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; Latin America; and Asia-Pacific. This allows us to more accurately estimate the revenues generated in each country, while also seeing how Netflix’s subscription figures and revenues have grown in each of these regions over the last 2.5 years.
At the end of 2019, Netflix had over 167 million subscribers and had generated a total of over $20.1 billion during the year. But during the first quarter of 2020, its subscriptions skyrocketed due to the final month of the quarter (March) being the start of the global coronavirus pandemic in many countries. By April 2020, Netflix had almost 183 million subscribers, increasing to nearly 193 million subscribers by July 2020.
How will this affect Netflix’s projections for 2020?
Below, we take a look at Netflix’s growth in each region and the estimated subscription numbers in over 20 countries. We’ve calculated the average revenue Netflix is generating in each of these locations before looking further ahead to see what revenues Netflix could expect for Q3 of 2020.
|Area||Q1 - 2018||Q2 - 2018||Q3 - 2018||Q4 - 2018||Year - 2018||Q1 - 2019||Q2 - 2019||Q3 - 2019||Q4 - 2019||Year - 2019||Q1 - 2020||Q2 - 2020|
|# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)||Total Subscribers||Total Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)||Total Subscribers||Total Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers||Average Monthly Revenue per Membership ($)||Quarter Revenue ($)|
|United States and Canada||60,909,000||11.04||1,976,157,000||61,870,000||11.13||2,049,546,000||63,010,000||11.18||2,094,850,000||64,757,000||11.28||2,160,979,000||64,757,000||8,281,532,000||66,633,000||11.45||2,256,851,000||66,501,000||12.52||2,501,199,000||67,114,000||13.08||2,621,250,000||67,662,000||13.22||2,671,908,000||67,662,000||10,051,208,000||69,969,000||13.09||2,702,776,000||72,904,000||13.25||2,839,670,000|
|Europe, Middle East, and Africa||29,339,000||10.68||886,649,000||31,317,000||10.72||975,497,000||33,836,000||10.28||1,004,749,000||37,818,000||10.2||1,096,812,000||37,818,000||3,963,707,000||42,542,000||10.23||1,233,379,000||44,229,000||10.13||1,319,087,000||47,355,000||10.4||1,428,040,000||51,778,000||10.51||1,562,561,000||51,778,000||5,543,067,000||58,734,000||10.4||1,723,474,000||61,483,000||10.50||1,892,537,000|
Netflix’s regional growth from 2018 to Q2 2020
If we look at Netflix’s subscriber figures by region we can see that the predominant growth has been in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region, with this forming a larger and larger chunk of Netflix’s subscriber base. The US and Canada now form just over a third of Netflix’s subscriber base, compared to over half at the start of 2018, while subscriber figures within Latin America have remained pretty constant.
However, if we look at revenue growth by region, we can see that one of the biggest leaps in revenue came from Asia-Pacific.
In Q1 of 2020, the Asia-Pacific region saw a 15.67 percent increase in revenue thanks to a 22.19 percent increase in subscriber figures. In Q2 of 2020, it saw a 17.67 percent increase in revenue thanks to the addition of a further 2.66 million subscribers.
Interestingly, the increases in this region aren’t due to an increase in the average monthly revenue per membership. Rather, since Q1 of 2018, the average revenue per membership has fallen in this region (from $9.37 in Q1 2018 to $8.94 in Q1 2020) or stayed much the same ($8.94 in Q1 and $8.96 in Q2 2020). This is likely due to Netflix’s attempts to further penetrate these markets, with ambitious plans to have 100 million subscribers in India alone (estimates put the current figure at around 2 million).
In contrast, the growth in revenue in the US and Canada has plateaued somewhat over the last year. In Q1 and Q2 of this year, the revenue in this region only increased by 1.16 percent and 1.22 percent, respectively. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Q1 of 2020 saw a 10.3 percent increase in revenue and Q2 a 9.81 percent increase, while the Latin America region saw a 6.31 percent increase in Q1 and a 1.02 percent decrease in Q2.
Netflix subscribers and revenues by country
Below we can see the number of subscribers by country as of 2019/20. These are based on the most up-to-date figures available with the majority based on estimates (as Netflix rarely reveals the number of subscribers outside of the US).
To try and ascertain how much revenue Netflix has generated in these countries, we’ve applied the figures from their quarterly earnings report for Q1 and Q2 2020. Then, to get an estimate of the current subscriber figures in these countries (for Q1 and Q2 2020), we’ve applied the percent increase seen in each region from Q4 2019 to Q1 2020 and Q1 2020 to Q2 2020.
We have then projected ongoing revenues for Q3 of 2020 based on Netflix’s estimates for the next quarter. It anticipates an increase of 2.5 million subscribers, which is an increase of 1.3 percent on the previous quarter. This stemmed growth is due to many of the coronavirus restrictions being eased, meaning less people will be looking for entertainment from home. However, as the uncertainty continues and many cities/countries continue to reinstate lockdowns, these figures could be much higher.
|Country||# of Subscribers - 2019||# of Subscribers - Q1 2020||Average Monthly Revenue per Paying Membership - Q1 2020 ($)||Q1 2020 Revenue ($)||# of Subscribers Q2 2020 (Estimate)||Q2 2020 Revenue $ (Estimate)|
If Netflix were to continue with its success of Q2, it could have as many as 203.5 million subscribers by the end of this month, generating a quarterly revenue of over $6.7 billion. The ongoing impact of the coronavirus on Netflix’s subscriber figures and revenue won’t be apparent until it releases its Q3 figures in October/November.
We’ll be updating this piece in line with the next earnings report to see just how much of an impact the pandemic has had on Netflix’s figures. Will subscriptions have continued to soar in those countries Netflix is trying to penetrate (Asia-Pacific) or will things have started to plateau?
You can also see whether or not these revenue-generating countries are getting good value for their money in our study on which countries pay the most and least for Netflix.
We have tried to focus on countries with the highest number of Netflix subscribers but have only included those where we could find reliable, first-hand sources. Due to the fact Netflix hardly ever discusses subscriber figures in a specific country (aside from the US), there are a whole host of estimates available. We have only used those that are backed up or come from a reputed source. In this edition, we have removed Switzerland for this reason, as there was some lack of clarity over the figures quoted by our source.
To calculate the revenue earnings in each country, we have used the average monthly revenue per subscription that Netflix has reported within the region the country is located in. These monthly earnings may be higher or lower than the monthly fees charged by Netflix in the country. For example, monthly fees in Turkey (even for Premium accounts) are lower than $10.40, but this is the average revenue figure per subscription for the region.
View the full data set and list of sources here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mH4euCHw0B-q3FBIlzVtU3G3EoaP_MFGNSrSG5l37Rk/edit?usp=sharing